Real Estate Perspectives
Real Estate Trends & Perspectives
 
At the Pointe, and on the Island
 
Welcome to Fantasy Island”: a history of real estate and real people at Hartstene Pointe
through the eyes of Walt Tupper, one of the “original settlers.”
 
Market Trends & Happenings
 
First Quarter - 2024
 
content here
 
Fourth Quarter - 2023
 
As 2023 came to a close, we were still experiencing low inventory, with only one cabin, and one contingent home on the market.  There are four lots, and buyers are still interested in building due to the lack of homes and island houses for sale.
 
Third Quarter - 2023
 
This quarter brought some new inventory, but every new listing is now pending.  There is currently only one home, and one island house listed for sale.  There are still a few lots listed for sale and one now pending.
 
Second Quarter - 2023
 
The second quarter brought slowed activity due to lack of inventory.  Agents have lists of buyers, but zero to few homes available.  There are still a few lots for sale, and lots are still being purchased for new builds.  Most buyers are inquiring about the ability to have short term rentals, which seems to be the biggest (and growing) market over the last few years.
 
First Quarter - 2023
 
The first quarter of this year has brought us again to the place we were a couple years ago.  As of 3/31/23, there was zero inventory for homes and island houses.  We still have buyers who would like to purchase here.  There are currently five lots listed for sale and buyers viewing lots to build since there are no homes.  Let's hope that spring will bring some new listings along with spring flowers.
 
Fourth Quarter - 2022
 
Our market is still in flux, however, there are still showings and interest in homes here.  Inventory of homes is still low helps maintain lot sales.  Activity was slow all quarter until just before Christmas and then it picked up. 
 
Third Quarter - 2022
 
This third quarter report has been on hold as we keep watch on what has lately been called a "nuanced" market.  Motley Fool, along with many economist have made various predictions including the article at the end of this report.
 
Basically what we are seeing is a correction to the price surge of the last couple of years.  Even though prices are not going up at the same rate as previously, they are still mostly higher than they were a year or so ago.  
 
Regarding Hartstene Pointe, we still have buyer demand and will continue to do so due to low inventory.  However, currently there is push back from buyers seeing mortgage rates at a 20-year high and inflation at a 40-year high.  This especially applies to those looking for a second home.  In the last quarter we saw list price reductions and homes staying on the market longer and the absence of multiple offers.
 
Our market is still a magnet for investors and with every listing, most phone inquiries are to confirm that short term rentals are allowed. 
 
Second Quarter - 2022
 
The words of Agent Rick from Bellevue ring true for Hartstene Pointe this time.   
 
It's a new season for our local real estate market! The red hot market with double digit appreciation and record low interest rates (2.68% in  December, 5.52% in June) has come to an end we have officially shifted markets.  It had to happen, it was unsustainable to continue at the pace we've been going. In order to get to the calm of a more balanced market we had to go through a messy couple of months.

The change in market means more houses on the market, longer market times, stabilizing home prices, fewer showings and open house visitors, fewer offers at one time, and more price adjustments.
 
First Quarter - 2022
 
Raising interest rates!  Runaway inflation!  Fear of housing bubble! Increasing prices! Recession!  Etc.!  These are some of the issues and fears buyers and sellers are grappling with theses days.  What does this mean for the housing market at Hartstene Pointe?  What we are seeing now is that our historic buyer base has given way to real estate investors purchasing homes here as a vacation rental business.  80-90% of the calls I receive with every new listing is from potential buyers asking only one question:  "Can you have vacation rentals there?"  About the same percentage represents the current buyers.  
 
That being said, Pointe properties are still in demand.  As you can see from the First Quarter Summary of Sales, the three homes that were listed in that period were the three homes that sold.  A home priced appropriately will sell within days or weeks. Appropriate pricing is more important than ever.  Even though prices are still rising, they are going up more slowly, and increases are expected to drop from double digits to single digits.  Multiple offers, which have been common here in the last few years are no longer common.  Buyer pushback may be the new norm as it becomes more difficult for buyers to purchase a home, much less a second home.   However, conomists are not expecting a housing bubble for a number of reasons.
 
What most economists are saying now is that this is a perfect time to sell
but that this window of opportunity is slowing closing.
 
Fourth Quarter - 2021
 
Hartstene Pointe continues to be plagued by lack of inventory.  For each listing posted, there are several potential buyers, and most homes are receiving multiple offers within days.  This is a region-wide dilemma. 
 
Some of you have notified me that you are receiving letters from out of area agents stating they have a buyer ready to pay fair market value for your home.  This is a common strategy for getting listings.  Most agents in the Shelton area have lists of buyers looking for homes.  (There are about 50 on my list.) This is a result of low inventory. 
 
What is fair market value?  Can a Comparative Market Analysis or appraisal give the answer.  We can be close, but with multiple offers, homes are likely going to go above any market-value estimate.  Listing is the best way to get the best price/buyer for your home.
 
Note:  Summary Sales for 2021 have been updated to include homes sold off-market.
 
Third Quarter - 2021
 
Third quarter has been another busy period for Hartstene Pointe.  We are still seeing prices rising, homes/island houses and lots often receive multiple offers above list price.  There is a huge backlog of buyers.  My list alone has close to sixty buyers looking for property here.  As of this writing (11/17/21), we have no island houses or homes listed for sale, and only two lots remain.  
 
According to Windermere chief economist, Matthew Gardner, price increases will trend lower.  Hartstene Pointe real estate activity is not seasonal as other markets, and often January brings out buyers.  Many of the renters coming of our vacation rentals fall in love with this community and decide to start looking for their own retreat in paradise.  Here is a link to the latest Gardner report on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebq2E6TgQ-M
 
Second Quarter - 2021
 
What would your home sell for today?  This is a question everyone asks?  The answer?  Until your home is listed for a reasonable price and receives multiple offers, you probably cannot guess the purchase price.  Most homes listed at the Pointe are getting multiple offers above list price within a few days.  The purchase price is mostly based on buyer motivation.  Our inventory is so low that we cannot meet the current demand.  People are buying here for a multitude of reasons, but many buyers are specifically looking for homes to use for vacation rentals as a business.
 
Since 2020, lots have received the most sales because there have been more lots than homes available.  Most purchasers are planning to build in the near future. 
 
First Quarter - 2021
 
We just completed the first quarter in my history with not one home listed for sale.  The only listing/sale was for one island house which was purchased by a buyer who viewed it the morning it was listed! There are still many buyers waiting to purchase a home or island house here, and any listings will likely have multiple offers within days or hours.  If you are considering selling this is the time!
 
Due to lack of homes, the lot sales picked up and by March 31, four were sold and one is pending, leaving us with only two for sale.  This is great news for anyone who might want to sell a lot they no longer intend to use.
The buyers of these lots are all planning to move ahead with building projects as soon as possible, so we can expect a big building boom in the next couple of years.
 
 

 
Summary of Sales: 2024
 
2024 Sales 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Houses        
Island Houses        
Lots        

MLS Listings
       
Houses        
Island Houses        
Lots        
 
Summary of Sales: 2023
 
2023 Sales 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Houses 2 2 2(+3P) 2
Island Houses 0 2 0(+1P) 2
Lots 0 1(p) 1(+1P) 2

MLS Listings
       
Houses 0 0 1(+3P) 2
Island Houses 0 0 1(+1P) 0
Lots 5 7 5(+1P) 4
 
Summary of Sales: 2022
 
2022 Sales 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Houses 3 5 4(+1) 2
Island Houses 0 1 6 0
Lots 1 1 3 3

MLS Listings
       
Houses 3 4 1 2
Island Houses 0 1 0 1
Lots 3 3 4 3(+1P)
 
Summary of Sales: 2021
 
2021 Sales 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Houses 2 4 6 (+2) 5 (+1)
Island Houses 1 2 (2 Pending) 6 2
Lots 5(+1P) 5(+1P) 1 (+2) 1

MLS Listings
       
Houses 0 1 1 (+2) 0
Island Houses 0   1 0
Lots 2 2 3 (+2) 2
 
Summary of Sales: 2020
 
2020 Sales 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Houses 2 (+1 pending) 6 6 (+1 pending) 2(+1)
Island Houses 2 (+1 pending) 3(+2) 2 (+3 pending) 4
Lots 1 1(+3) 12 (+1 pending) 2 (+1)

MLS Listings
       
Houses 5 2 0 0
Island Houses 1 1 0 0
Lots 11 9 4 3
 

Historical # of Sales
houses, Island Houses, & lots
 
Year Homes Island Houses Lots
2023 8 4 4
2022 15 7 8
2021 15 11 12
2020 16 11 4
2019 26 9 17
2018 20 4 12
2017 25 6 8
2016 18 3 2
2015 18 6 1
2014 14 2 1
2013 9 4 1
2012 14 0 2
2011 8 1 0
2010 10 2 1
2009 3 2 1